NFL Picks – Week 11

If the last two weeks have proved anything, it’s that the NFL can be unpredictable, whether due to injuries, upsets, or tie games.  Either that, or I am incredibly mediocre at picking NFL games (likely the latter).

With that said, here are the Week 11 picks.  Short and sweet, in 140(ish) characters or less (a la Twitter).

(Home team in CAPS.  Lines per Sportsbook.com as of 1:30pm on Wednesday, November 14th.)

BUFFALO (-2) over Miami

Thought Miami was sneaky good. They got blown out by the Titans and only scored 6 points.  Buffalo can’t play D, but can at least score.

Green Bay (-3.5) over DETROIT

The Packers are coming off of a bye week, and Aaron Rodgers loves playing in domes.

Arizona (+9.5) over ATLANTA

The Cardinals are also coming off of a bye, and Atlanta was exposed against the Saints last week. Too much garbage-time TD potential.

WASHINGTON ( -3.5) over Philadelphia

The ‘Skins are due for a bounce back game, while the Eagles lost Mike Vick to a concussion and couldn’t protect Nick Foles (2 sacks in limited action).

Tampa Bay (+1.5) over CAROLINA

The Bucs’ offense is can score points (28.9 per game; 3rd in NFL).  Carolina hasn’t been able to close out games, especially at home (see last week’s blowout loss to the Broncos).

Cleveland (+8) over DALLAS

The Browns have played all close games and have to close.  Most of Dallas’ games have also been decided by 7 points or less.

ST. LOUIS (-3.5) over New York Jets

An unnamed Jets defensive player said about Tim Tebow what all of us already knew.  I like the Rams at home, coming off a confidence building tie in San Francisco.

HOUSTON (-15) over Jacksonville

The classic ‘This line is so high, and I think Houston is going to dominate, but I can’t bring myself to actually take them laying 15 points’ game. (Okay, I talked myself into it.)

Cincinnati (-3.5) over KANSAS CITY

The Bengals looked good against a struggling Giants team last week (cue token Eli Manning media).  Meanwhile, KC keeps finding ways to lose games.

New Orleans (-4.5) over OAKLAND

The Saints are on a roll, while the Raiders got 55 put up against them last week.  Saints win another shootout.

Indianapolis (+9) over NEW ENGLAND

The Pats have played close at home all year, while the Andrew Luck Colts are 2012’s feel-good story.  New England hangs on in another close(ish) one.

DENVER (-7.5) over San Diego

News flash: The Broncos are a top 3 AFC team, Peyton Manning is a top 3 MVP candidate, and they get the struggling Chargers at home.

Baltimore (-3.5) over PITTSBURGH

Big Ben could miss extended time with a shoulder/rib injury.  I like Joe Flacco against the Steelers’ D more than Byron Leftwich against the Ravens’ D.

SAN FRANCISCO (No Line ) over Chicago

Two QBs with concussions (advantage to whichever team’s starter is cleared to play).  Two great defenses.  I’ll take the Niners in The Stick (as long as the lights don’t go out).

Last Week:  7-7-0

Season:  13-14-0

3 thoughts on “NFL Picks – Week 11

    1. sethlareau Post author

      We’ll see. Arizona has looked alright at times. I may be overvaluing their bye week. I feel like the Falcons will be leading like 31-16 and give up a late TD.

      Reply
      1. bk1984

        You might be right. NFL.com has it pegged as an upset special. The Falcons D is suspect, so they might not cover -9.5. I just don’t think ARI can score points.

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